The researchers from Oxford Martin School of University of Oxford examined how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a completely unique methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, employing a Gaussian process classifier scoring jobs on 9 possible traits.
Based on these estimates, the researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne examined expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the first objective of analysing the amount of jobs in danger and therefore the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and academic attainment.
According to their estimates, about 47 per cent of total US employment is in danger. They further provide evidence that wages and academic attainment exhibit a robust negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.
This study examines the susceptibility of jobs to computerization and estimates the probability of computerization for 702 detailed occupations. The paper is motivated by concerns about technological unemployment and the impact of computerization on labor market outcomes.
While the computer substitution for both cognitive and manual routine tasks is evident, non-routine tasks involving cognitive skills are becoming more productive, explaining the substantial employment growth in occupations that require problem-solving skills.
The study by University of Oxford draws upon recent advances in machine learning and mobile robotics to develop a methodology for categorizing occupations according to their susceptibility to computerization. And argues that a number of factors are driving decisions to automate and that this cannot be captured fully.
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